The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane Matthew, located over the central Caribbean Sea to the south-southwest of Haiti. If #HurricaneMatthew Eye manages to stay east of Mountains in Cuba Then U.S. East Coast better hold on tight for one heck of a storm that is tracking right up the South Coast of the United States.
1. Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of
low pressure located about 430 miles north-northeast of the northern
Leeward Islands have increased and become better organized today.
Further development of this system is possible during the next
couple of days before upper-level winds become unfavorable for
development. This system is expected to move west-northwestward to
northwestward at 10 to 15 mph during the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…medium…60 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…medium…60 percent
Forecaster Roberts TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT MON OCT 3 2016
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
Hurricane Matthew is centered near 16.3N 74.7W at 03/2100 UTC or
about 120 nm S of Tiburon Haiti and about 195 nm SW of Port au
Prince Haiti moving N at 6 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure
is 940 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 120 kt with gusts to
145 kt. Scattered to numerous strong convection is from 14N-17N
between 73W-76W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection
is elsewhere from 11N-21N between 68W-78W. See latest NHC
Intermediate Public Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIATCPAT4/WTNT34 KNHC and the full Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/
WMO headers MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC for more details.
A 1012 mb surface low is centered near 24N60W that nearly
coincides with a mid-level area of low pressure on the southern
periphery of a middle to upper level ridge to the north anchored
along 30N. The low is expected to move NW at 10-15 kt through
Wednesday. Scattered moderate convection is from 20N-25N between55W-60W.
The main concern is Hurricane Matthew located in the central
Caribbean tracking towards the Windward Passage region. as Matthew tracks generally northward the next few days…the trades will continue to be disrupted through Tuesday night into Wednesday when Matthew is expected to be centered north of eastern Cuba in the SW North Atlc region. Trades will begin re-establishing themselves from east to west thereafter through the second half of next week.
Cloudiness and convection associated with the outer bands of
Matthew continues moving over the island this evening. Matthew
remains centered S-SW of Hispaniola with numerous showers and
scattered tstms expected to continue through the overnight hours
into Tuesday. Matthew is expected to reach the SW tip of Haiti on
Tuesday bringing strong winds…heavy rainfall…life-threatening
flash flooding…mud slides…dangerous storm surge…and large
The remainder of the SW North Atlc is under the influence of the
overall broad cyclonic circulation of Matthew as it tracks
northward toward the Windward Passage region of the Caribbean Sea waters. Outer convective bands are generating scattered showers and tstms across much of eastern Cuba, Hispaniola…Puerto Rico and a large portion of the Leeward Islands.